US President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that Iran is in a "state of collapse" and has requested the United States to help "open" the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC's move to cut output has pushed up oil prices. From here it could go either way: oil could reach $100/barrel or an analysis of demand and supply might follow, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Wednesday, tracking a bearish trend in Asian markets, as the conflict in West Asia widened, driving oil prices higher.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
Iran has reportedly allowed select "friendly nations" including India and Pakistan limited access to the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict, easing some energy supply concerns. Here's what the move means for global trade and oil routes.
As the rupee weakens, wealthy families are accelerating investments in global assets.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has warned that the ongoing West Asia crisis is not merely a geopolitical issue but will directly lead to higher fuel costs for common people and businesses, impacting shipping, input availability, and export orders.
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
Iran has blamed the US for disruptions in oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing 'destabilising actions' as the cause amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and rising energy prices.
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
A senior government official asserts India's independence in purchasing Russian oil, stating that US sanctions waivers merely remove friction but do not dictate India's energy policy. The official highlights India's commitment to energy security and affordability for its citizens.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has urged India to take the lead in bringing peace to West Asia, highlighting the UAE's role in stalling BRICS consensus on the conflict. Gharibabadi also discussed a new framework with Oman for merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty surged nearly 1 per cent, driven by strong earnings reports from FMCG and auto sectors, alongside a rally in Asian markets and signs of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
A US military Apache attack helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz, with its crew successfully rescued, as US President Donald Trump confidently declared an imminent 'total victory' over Iran within two weeks and a new nuclear deal, despite ongoing regional volatility and a recent de-escalation between Iran and Israel.
The US and Iran have agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days after hours-long talks at the Swiss resort of Burgenstock, mediators Qatar and Pakistan said on Monday, describing the progress as "encouraging."
Domestic institutional investors, on the other hand, made a net investment of Rs 1.13 trillion during this period.
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz has stated that Israel is prepared to escalate military action against Iran, pending approval from the United States. This comes as US President Donald Trump says he would not use nuclear weapons in any conflict with Iran, while also claiming the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 62,853 crore from Indian equities in the first fortnight of June, bringing the total outflows for 2026 to Rs 2.87 lakh crore, surpassing the entire 2025 figure, driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic growth concerns, and a weakening rupee.
'Existing investors who have not acted so far may consider holding on to these funds with the understanding that the higher returns they expected from them may now take longer to materialise.'
As it is, a great deal of oil is produced in countries with little to underpin their economies besides oil, so pricing the black stuff in an international currency makes sense, especially when that currency is that of the primary buyer of the oil concerned. It makes things simple for the buyer and lets the seller take its revenue in a major currency.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday said that surging global oil prices may pull down India's economic growth by 0.5 per cent but expected stable interest rates to spur investment.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is impacting lifestyles worldwide, from reduced gold purchases in India to energy conservation in Europe and Japan, as governments urge citizens to adapt to the global energy shock.
The rupee plunged to a fresh low of 93.72 against the dollar on Friday, falling 1.15 per cent in a single session - its sharpest one-day decline since February 24, 2022 - as elevated crude oil prices and strong dollar demand from oil-marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) weighed on the currency.
Come December, India may have to re-evaluate purchases of Russian oil if a price cap on crude oil proposed by the US and the European Union (EU) comes into effect. That impacts nearly a quarter of India's oil purchases that come at a discount, helping limit marketing losses for India's state refiners and enabling New Delhi to manage inflation by freezing pump prices of motor fuels. In September, India imported 1 million barrels a day or 24 per cent of its overall imports from Russia, which became the biggest supplier of oil to India.
India's aviation sector is facing fresh turbulence, with rising fuel costs, the Ministry of Civil Aviation's free-seat directive, and geopolitical disruptions in West Asia clouding near-term earnings visibility.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar addresses the Indian Ocean Conference, expressing deep concern over the West Asia conflict and its economic repercussions on energy, trade, and food security. India calls for a swift return to peace and opposes targeting civilians and infrastructure.
Companies are already diversifying sourcing, raising prices, and reworking operating models as the disruption drags on.
The contraction in total reserves was driven by a fall in gold reserves, which dropped $13.49 billion to $117.19 billion during the reported week.
IndiGo airline will face near-term pressure on profitability from rising fuel prices following the escalation of conflict in West Asia, though it is likely to pass on higher costs to passengers over time because its ticket booking cycle is relatively short, according to a report by Moody's Ratings.
Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US.
The Trump administration maintains the US is 'not at war' with Iran, despite military engagement reaching a critical legal threshold under the War Powers Resolution, potentially leading to a confrontation with Congress.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1 per cent on Monday, driven by strong buying in power, banking, and financial stocks.
The rupee appreciated 53 paise to close at 89.67 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices. Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities and Brent crude oil prices hovering near $59 per barrel supported the domestic unit at lower levels.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Russia on Thursday said it was not bothered at a possible price cap on its crude oil proposed by the West, saying Moscow will negotiate directly with its partners like India and China as the price should be decided between the producers and consumers, and "not someone who just decided to punish someone." Members of the G7 have agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in a bid to hit Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine. Countries want to reach an agreement ahead of December 5, when Europe's embargo on Russian crude travelling by sea takes effect.
Indian stock markets recovered from early losses to close higher, driven by value buying in IT and banking shares and a rebound in the rupee.
